Fantasy Bills: RB Marshawn Lynch

by Brian Galliford on Jul 10, 2007 9:11 AM EDT in Opinion

Perfect for the flex position (Courtesy: BuffaloBills.com)

Note: this is a continuation of the "Fantasy Bills" series here at Buffalo Rumblings. This series focuses on fantasy football-worthy Bills players and how they should be utilized this coming season. Previous Fantasy Bills: Losman, Price, Evans

Name one rookie who has a better chance at making a big-time statistical impact as a rookie than Bills running back Marshawn Lynch.

OK, Lions wideout Calvin Johnson doesn't count.

So name one rookie who has a better chance at making a big-time statistical impact as a rookie than Bills running back Marshawn Lynch other than Calvin Johnson. Not too many names come up, do they? The fact of the matter is this: when fantasy drafts start going down, Lynch will always be one of (if not the) first rookie drafted. Here's why.

What Has Changed?
A lot has obviously changed for Lynch, who goes from being a dominant talent in the Pac-10 to an unproven talent against NFL defenses. So there is obviously going to be a transition period.

But everything else looks promising. Lynch will be used in Buffalo much like he was used at Cal under Jeff Tedford - he'll get 15 carries or so a game and be used a lot as a receiver. With a two-back system in place in Buffalo, Lynch won't face a lot of pressure to "carry the load". He already has the look of this offense's best playmaker (outside of Lee Evans), so his rookie season could be special.

What's the Same
Essentially nothing - and that's a very good thing. Gone are the days of a run-between-the-tackles, one-horse system that Travis Henry and Willis McGahee used. The way the position is utilized will be different; the offensive line is much better; the offensive system as a whole is better; the players are better and more versatile. Nothing is the same with this unit, which will help Lynch succeed.

Projections
It is important to remember that Lynch is not going to see the entirety of the running back work this season, so he likely won't come very close to putting up numbers worthy of being a top-two back on your team. But his playmaking potential will make him a top flex option - especially if your backs get points for receptions.

224 carries, 940 yards, 7 TD; 50 catches, 410 yards, 2 TD

Outlook
If you can get your fantasy paws on Lynch before the 6th round (especially as your #3 back), you are on your way to a deep playoff run. Lynch will provide you solid statistics, an excellent receiving back for flex leagues and plenty of appearances in highlight packages. Just don't expect much more than that his rookie season.

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Comments

wrong

I really see this kid going over 1200 yards for this season (rushing) what he seems to have is the ability to (granted it was college) move forward he doesn't quit on a run the defense has to work to bring him down, with willis everytime I watched him he just didn't seem to be trying, he didn't hit the line hard or he went down to easy never was impressed with him, he was there to collect a pay check, back to Lynch to average 75 yards a game is not out of the question for him.

Bills fan in PA

by Bills fan in PA on Jul 10, 2007 11:01 AM EDT 0 recs

Try not to get too excited

Those are some LARGE expectations. Keep in mind that Thurman Thomas himself did not break 1,000 in his first season in a strikingly similar situation (young QB/WR, new offensive line).

Factor in A-Train and even Dwayne Wright, and I think 1200 rushing yards is far too high a prediction for him. Not that I don't hope he gets there, of course...

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by Brian Galliford on Jul 10, 2007 2:23 PM EDT 0 recs

to old to get excited

Getting 1000 yards anymore isn't as difficult as it used to be again 75 yards a game can be done and only 60 a game will get him the 1000, don't you think that a new meausering stick to be considered a elite back is 1300-1500 yards a year

Bills fan in PA

by Bills fan in PA on Jul 10, 2007 5:37 PM EDT 0 recs

I don't expect 1000 yards either

In fact, I don't think he'll get the bulk of the carries until the second half of the season.

Right now, I can see Thomas getting 10-15 carries a game and Wright about 5. With that, I can't see Lynch getting any more than the 10-15 Thomas would be getting. As the season progresses, I think we'll move away from Thomas and more towards Lynch and to a lesser extent Wright. But initially, I don't envision him having a huge impact in the run game.

HOWEVER, I can see him being a major threat in the passing game the second he puts his jersey on. I truly expect we'll be using more screens and quick swing passes this year to get Lynch into space where he can use his strengths (speed and cutbacks). I would say he could have a Reggie Bush type early season where his only major impact is in the pass game. By the end of the year I think it'll be more Joe Addai like, big threat in both facets.

800-900 yards rushing and hopefully close to 500 receiving sounds about right to me. I just hope he can turn those yards into TD's. That's what we really need this year....

by Kurupt on Jul 10, 2007 5:45 PM EDT 0 recs

He won't get 1000 yards

He'll come close, but he won't get to 1000. And he doesn't have to. With this offense, 900 yards from Lynch makes the Bills a threat to make the playoffs.

Figure Thomas is going to get about 10 carries a game, probably a little less. Then figure Wright is going to get around 5 carries a game -- not much, but enough to be useful for his development. Between them, that's 240 carries. The Bills ran a total of 420 times last year.

I'd guess Lynch will carry 200-220 times and average about 4.5 yards. That translates to 900-990 rushing yards. Add to that another 400-500 yards receiving, and we're talking about a strong Rookie of the Year candidate.

by rexob on Jul 10, 2007 6:20 PM EDT 0 recs