A few truths we need to accept

by sireric on Mar 22, 2008 3:42 PM EDT

There are a few things that I think some of us need to come to grips with, myself included.
1st - I would put the probability that the Bills trade down, even though it makes tons of sense to most of us, at about 10%. In 2005 the Bills had a ton of holes, and there were plenty a places the Bills could have gone with their top pick. The Denver Broncos reportedly made a very nice offer to trade up with the Bills, and even though the Bills could have used the extra picks, they took the guy that they fell in love with, Donte Whitner. I don't see this year being any different; the Bills will lock in on a guy they like and when pick #11 comes up they will make the selection regardless of whether everyone thinks it's a smart pick or not. Mind you I would love to see them move down, I just don't see it happening.
2nd - I think that all of us need to come to grips with the fact that the Bills will most likely take a receiver. SP, Kurupt, Krytime, and I all have to get ready to deal with this fact. I'm not going to list the many reasons why I dislike this idea yet again, I will simply say that if the Bills do take a wide receiver with the top pick, they would be smart to take another one at some point in the draft. This leads to #3...
3rd - The Bills should take multiple receivers. Lee Evans is headed for free agency. There were some big contracts given out to receivers this year, and some of those receivers were inferior to Evans. Lee and his agent will want a big raise, and if he doesn't get it he might walk. Conner Byrne wrote about this in a recent article.
4th - Fowler isn't going anywhere this year. I'm not as down on Melvin as most seem to be. I wont disagree that Fowler is the weak link on the O-Line, but he's not as bad as everyone likes to think. If he was so bad he would have been replaced by now. The Bills could very well take a center in the draft this year, for several reasons not the least of which is that Fowler is a free agent after this year, but whomever they draft won't be expected to take over in 2008.

I'm not saying that I completely agree with any of these things. I don't want a receiver at #11, I would love to replace Fowler with somebody who doesn't get pushed around, and I would love to see the Bills trade down, pick up some more picks and take a receiver somewhere around 15-20. I just don't see any of that happening the way most of us would like it too, and we need to start preparing ourselves now

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Thank you, Eric

That's exactly what I'm getting at in my latest article. Nothing the Bills ever do screams "ideal" in the eyes of the fan base; they do what they need to do.

Agree about multiple wideouts as well - we need depth, with future starters, there in a bad way. That's why I added Todd Blythe in the sixth in the Authors Mock. :)

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by Brian Galliford on Mar 22, 2008 3:47 PM EDT 0 recs

So true.

You guys are probably right. Whatever does happen, I'm sure this organization will continue to add a few good players every year. The most important thing is that they continue this two year trend.

I really like the Blythe pick you made Brian.

by krytime on Mar 22, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agree

I've been saying this for years, ok weeks.

I am convinced that Lee is gone. If he stays, great. But there is so much money out there, he would be crazy not to test it. Some team that has put themselves in a desperate situation will pay through the nose for Lee.

We must prepare ourselves for that, and not be the team that has to overextend for a decent player.

by RabidBuffalo on Mar 22, 2008 4:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Excellent

Agreed.

I'll still be mad if they take a WR at #11 instead of trading down. There will be a ton of potential suitors for our pick, I just hope we get the maximum value out of it instead of reaching for players like Whitner again.

I've already resigned myself to the fact that there's a better chance we don't take a DE at all compared to taking one in round 1. I get the feeling that OBD doesn't view DE as such a big need, which would be ridiculous. We'll probably end up with some 4th or 5th round pick that isn't ready to contribute, especially to our pass rush, right away.

I've already redone my mock with 2 WR's in it, and another as an UDFA. We've got to add some players to the position that will help now and in the future. With that said, I expect us to take a WR at #11 even though I don't agree with it. With Evans seemingly with one foot out the door (at least IMO), it makes sense to go WR at 11 even though I don't necessarily believe anyone is worth it at that point. And it makes even more sense to go WR again later on, which I'm thinking should be done in the 4th-6th round area.

I still expect the draft to play out very similar to what we expect though with WR, TE, CB and DE all in the first 4 rounds. It's the actual players that will surprise us.

by Kurupt on Mar 22, 2008 5:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Now you did it

Now I have to add possible undrafted free agents to my mock drafts? Adds to the fun I guess.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 22, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Something I'm not sure why we accept

A guy with a 56% completion percentage and 70 rating is the QB of the future. I'm just as scared of Trent as I am of not getting a good player at #11. Remember going into last year thinking JP had turned the corner? Should we accept that even with rookie WR additions, Trent's going to do better than a rating of 70 this year?

by jj24 on Mar 22, 2008 5:26 PM EDT 0 recs

my point is

maybe we should draft a legimate future QB to help improve our offrnse. I like Joe Flacco and if he's there in the second round I would not be upset at all if Buffalo took him to go with our first round WR.

by jj24 on Mar 22, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

trent

why give up on trent already though, he was a rookie, of course he wasnt spectacular, but he was still pretty good for a rookie qb. especially with what he had. im fine with trent, and jp going into next season. sure we wont throw for 4000 yards, the bills are going to focus more on runnning the ball this year anyways. so why not let trent develop, and re-analyze him at the end of next season.

by big john on Mar 22, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pretty good for a rookie QB isn't convincing me

I want to hear something more like "very impressive even for a veteran". I watched way too many drives end in field goals last year to be sold on Trent Edwards. He has a below average arm, not very mobile, and he misses open receivers. How many times did he dump off to Michael Gaines? Too many.

by jj24 on Mar 22, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

trent again

Edwards was thrown into an offensive system that wasnt too great. The play calling, and overall offensive managing by fairchild was below average at best. i understand that his arm strength is sub par, but he doesnt honestly need to throw deep balls every down. hes going to get his chance this year, and hopefully they wont jerk back and forth between quarterbacks. but they should re-evaluate him at the end of next year, with a year of a new offensive coordinatore under his belt, and hopefully a year where he had more offensive weapons.

by big john on Mar 23, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Trading down is the right thing to do

IMO, and until draft day, I refuse to eliminate the possibility from my mind. I am personally just fine with them taking the best possible wideout at 11, which I don't think I am getting across very well on this site. Nevertheless, like you mentioned, we will probably need to take two WRs, and trading down would make that a heck of a lot easier.

Either way, I will not back down just because we have a 10% chance at doing so. I read that 87% of all statistics are made up on the spot anyway.

by DCRumbler on Mar 22, 2008 6:54 PM EDT 0 recs

10%

I did pulled that out of my a**.

Man do I miss #78

by sireric on Mar 22, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

I thought so, but I let you slide a little on it..

by krytime on Mar 22, 2008 11:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry everyobody

I let a forbidden word slip in a post...but Duke had just lost and messed up my bracket bad, so I was under a little bit of stress. My bad though

by DCRumbler on Mar 23, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ouch.....

Never count on Duke....most overrated team in CB buddy. Sorry to hear bout your bracket, I'm glad I'm not saying that, I have only lost one elite 8 team (Pitt.), and my whole final four is intact. Gotta love this tourney!

Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Mar 23, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm going to Accept....

Yes, I do need to come to grips that we will probably see a WR at number 11, and I have always realized that trading down is very very unlikely (still hopping though). I absolutely agree that we also need to take one later in the draft (Jordy Nelson?). I just have such a big problem with the WR in the first thing because the one I think will be the best (Jackson) is not what we need, and I am by no means sold on Kelly, Sweed, or Thomas (he had 76 catches but 15 drops..ouch), but I will learn to love whoever it is we take as a WR, but I can still hope for a Jordy Nelson in the 3rd as well. Eric thanks for the start to truly being able to deal with whatever may (Probably) will happen come that day in April that we all look forward to So Much!

Playoff Bound in '08!

by SP on Mar 23, 2008 2:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Sounds right to me

10% sounds about right for the Bills chances of trading down. They could consider moving if they can get great value or if they fall in love with a player and he gets taken right before they pick. What does everyone think the odds are that the Bills move up or down in the second round? 41 overall is a spot in the draft that typically sees a lot of trades and the Bills have a history of aggressively going after the players they like.

I don't really agree with the need to draft two wide receivers. I think they like Justin Jenkins as a special teams guy and want him on the roster. If Teyo Johnson makes the roster he is a player that will basically be used like a wideout. In this deep WR class they can probably find a late round bargain, somebody will probably drop a couple rounds and if they grab a player like that I won't have a problem with it. I would prefer the Bills draft a second receiver in the 7th round or sign one as an undrafted free agent. They should target players like Josh Morgan (VT) or Samie Stroughter (Oregon St.) as guys who could earn a roster spot by returning kicks. If the Bills wait until after the draft they could probably grab one of those guys or a player like Evan Moore (Stanford), Amari Jackson (USF), Luke Swan (Wisconson), Brian Paysinger (Oregon), DeCody Fagg (FSU) or a similiar player and stash him on the practice squad. I just don't like the idea of the Bills wasting a roster spot on a developmental WR who probably won't develop.

I would love the Bills to draft a center like Steve Justice or Mike Pollack, but I agree that they won't. Jason Whittle will be the backup to Fowler. Preston can play center in a pinch too. A lot of people have mentioned Fernando Velasco from Georgia as an option as a center/guard combo. I like this idea and Chris McDuffie out of Clemson is a similiar player who could play both center and guard. Players like Andrew Crummey (Maryland), Will Arnold (LSU) and Kirk Elder (Texas A&M) are some examples of players who played guard in college, but might have the athletic abilities to convert to center.

by kaisertown on Mar 23, 2008 3:40 PM EDT 0 recs